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Annals of Family Medicine 6:503-511 (2008)
© 2008 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.
doi: 10.1370/afm.887
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Predicting Future Risk of Depressive Episode in Adolescents: The Chicago Adolescent Depression Risk Assessment (CADRA)

Benjamin W. Van Voorhees, MD, MPH1,2,3, David Paunesku, BA1, Jackie Gollan, PhD4, Sachiko Kuwabara, MA5, Mark Reinecke, PhD4 and Anirban Basu, PhD6

1 Section of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
2 Section of Advanced Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
3 Section of Child Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
4 Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Chicago, Illiinois
5 Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
6 Section of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois


Figure 1
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  		Figure 1. Prediction and early intervention model.

 

Figure 2
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  		Figure 2. Receiver operator characteristics curve using wave-1 independent variables to predict depressive episode at wave 2 in test data set.

CART=classification and regression trees.

Area under receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.71–0.87).

In test sample (N = 1,750; 40%).

 

Figure 3
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  		Figure 3. Predictive power of the 5-level prediction index in training and test sample.

Note: The y axis represents the predicted prevalence of depressive episodes at 1-year follow-up among subjects with a given level of score today.

 




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